- Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines in a highly competitive race in Montana.
- Montana has been reliably Republican at the presidential level, but has elected several Democrats statewide, including Bullock, in recent years.
- Bullock’s strong electoral track record in the state and his impressive fundraising thus far makes him a highly formidable candidate against Daines.
- In-person voting locations in Montana close at 8 p.m. local time and 10 p.m. ET, but nearly every county in the state has chosen to conduct the 2020 election by mail.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines in a highly competitive race in Montana.
In-person voting locations in Montana close at 8 p.m. local time and 10 p.m. ET, but nearly every county in the state has chosen to conduct the 2020 election by mail, meaning the winner of this race may not be immediately determined. Insider will have live results for the race as they come in.
The candidates
Bullock, an outgoing two-term governor and former Montana attorney general, announced he would run for US Senate after a short-lived 2020 presidential run.
As governor, Bullock was best known for expanding Medicaid in the state, working to protect public lands, and successfully banning dark money from undisclosed sources in Montana state elections.
Daines, a businessman and former US House Representative for Montana’s At-Large Congressional District, was first elected to the seat in 2014 and is now seeking a second term.
He serves on the Senate Finance and Appropriations Committees, and has focused resources on protecting public lands — an important bipartisan issue in the state — and delivering resources to Montana’s Native American communities.
Daines hasn’t stirred up too much controversy during his time in the US Senate, but still faces a competitive re-election battle.
Bullock has posted eye-popping fundraising numbers and is quickly gaining ground against Daines. Bullock has broken an all-time quarterly fundraising record for Senate races in Montana, bringing in $7.7 million in 2020’s second quarter and a stunning $26.9 million. And in Montana’s cheap media markets, a little goes a long way.
The stakes
In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major step towards either delivering on a future president Joe Biden’s policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda.
Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote).
For years, Montana has been reliably Republican at the presidential level but has elected several Democrats statewide.
Democrat Jon Tester has represented Montana’s other US Senate seat since 2007. And Bullock has a strong track record of winning crossover votes. He was first elected to the governor’s office in 2012 as Sen. Mitt Romney won the state by over 13 points, and was re-elected in 2016 as President Donald Trump carried the state by over 20 points.
To be sure, the dynamics of federal and state-level races are often quite different, and unseating an incumbent Senator is a far more complicated task than winning an open gubernatorial race, for example.
But in the context of Montana, Bullock’s strong electoral record, solid approval ratings, and strong name recognition make him a formidable opponent against Daines.
There are several other key races in Montana bringing national attention to the state, including the open governor’s race between GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte and Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney, and the open US House race between Democrat Kathleen Williams and Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale.
See Insider’s full guide to the race for the US Senate here
The money race:
Bullock has both significant outraised and outspent Daines but has less cash on hand going into the final days of the election, data from the Center for Responsive Politics and the Federal Election Commission shows.
This cycle, Bullock has raised $43.3 million, spent $39.3 million, and has $4 million in cash on hand, while Daines has raised $25.7 million, spent $25.4 million, and has $1.7 million in cash on hand.
In 2020’s third fundraising quarter, Bullock brought in an eye-popping $26.9 million haul compared to $11.5 million for Daines, Roll Call reported.
What the polls say
The surveys of the race in the lead up to Election Day indicate a close contest between Daines and Bullock.
A New York Times and Siena College poll conducted from October 18-20 found Daines leading Bullock by three points, 49% to 46%, among likely voters.
Two more recent surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling and Montana State University at Billings both yielded the same topline result, finding Bullock leading Daines by one point, 48% to 47%, among all voters and likely Montana voters, respectively.
Two previous polls fielded in mid-October found narrow leads for Daines. An NBC Montana/Strategies 360 from October 15-20 found Daines leading Bullock by one point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters.
A poll conducted by RMG Research from October 15-18 found Daines leading Bullock by two points, 49% to 47% among likely voters.
What the experts say
The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race as a «toss-up» while Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rates the race «leans Republican.»
According to FiveThirtyEight’s US Senate forecast, Daines has a 67% chance of defeating Bullock in November. Daines is expected to receive 52% of the popular vote compared to 48% for Bullock.